The challenge of sustainable manufacturing – four scenar - ios 2015 - 20201 , 2 Anton

This paper explores the prospects for sustainable manufacturing. How will manufacturers respond to the future challenges in the socio-economic business environment and technological change? What is the scope for sustainable manufacturing assuming different socio-economic development paths? How will manufacturers adapt their Corporate Sustainability strategies to these developments? The paper throws light on these questions. We present four socio-economic scenarios which were developed in the framework of the FP5 Accompanying Measure “The Future of Manufacturing in Europe 2015-2020 – The Challenge of Sustainability”. The scenarios serve as a tool to discuss the possible scope and likely approaches to sustainable manufacturing. The scenarios indicate that sustainability is only one among a set of critical issues manufacturers will have to address to maintain their competitiveness in the future: improving supply chain efficiency, acquiring and managing knowledge, anticipating new market needs, and adopting new technology are other challenges that will shape manufacturing. The balance industry will seek to tackle these competing (and partly conflicting) issues will result in trade-offs with regard to the pace and direction towards sustainability in manufacturing. We argue that corporate sustainability portfolios will vary depending on the broader socioeconomic and policy environment. In relation to policy making in support of pro-active corporate sustainability strategies we propose to concentrate on options that help to avoid less desirable future states to emerge and – at the same time – prove to be effective in many different scenarios. The paper suggests as such promising policy approaches the introduction of fiscal instruments, the exploitation of Europe’s strengths with regard to sustainable technology, stakeholder involvement, paying attention to second-order effects of socio-technical change, and incentives for the development of more sustainable consumption patterns.